Are You Ready for the Electrification Value Chain? |你準備好加入電動化的行列了嗎 ?
– Musings of Dr. Jamie C. Hsu, 03.15.2021
Recently, a group of my friends discussed the emergence of electric vehicles (EV) and its implications on our lives, new businesses, investment opportunities, and careers. Here are my thoughts based on my years of auto industry research, MBA studies, and consulting work.
First of all, EV is inevitable and is for real. This is caused by multiple factors: the advancement of new battery materials, the diminishing improvement in ICE (internal combustion engines) and transmissions, the ever more stringent emission and fuel economy regulations, and the flexible sources for electricity. ICE technology is approaching the plateau region of its S-curve, while electric technology is rising steeply on a new S-curve. In the years to come, the advantages of EV over ICE in performance and operating cost will widen, hence permanently shifting the auto industry to the new electrification S-curve.
This is why auto companies, old and new, are all declaring their intents and plans to stop ICE design and shift to EV in the next decades. Due to the relatively simpler architecture and components in EV, many new companies have emerged. This is happening particularly in China as a result of government incentives and private equity investments. It is becoming a crowded field with companies forming, merging, or disappearing, similar to the pruning of ICE companies a hundred years ago.
This shift to EV is also causing drastic realignments in the supply chain. Traditional suppliers of ICE are downsizing, merging, or transforming to become suppliers of batteries, motors, converters, controls, new electronics, and software. The companies that control the critical technologies and manufacturing capabilities are becoming the darlings of the industry. We see the emergence of key battery players in China and Korea, motor and control players in Japan and Germany, and chip and electronics players in Taiwan.
In addition, the EV evolution will create new needs and opportunities to generate and share electricity among vehicles, homes, and micro power plants. Some new applications and technologies will emerge as the electrification industry climbs up the new S-curve. We will see explosive growth of a variety of innovative EV and many exciting new products and services. Keep your eyes peeled and start exploring so you can capture the value of this new supply chain.
你準備好加入電動化的行列了嗎 ?
-作者 許俊宸博士
-中譯 薛乃綺
最近我一群好友們對於電動車的出現、及它對我們生活、新的業務、投資機會、職業等做了一番討論。以下是根據我多年來在車輛產業的研究、過往MBA的學習, 與諮詢顧問工作, 得到的心得。
首先，電動車是必然且真實的。這是多種因素引起的：包括新電池材料的發展、內燃機和變速箱演進的瓶颈、日益嚴格的排放和燃油經濟法規、以及更多的動力來源。內燃機技術已经到了S曲線的饱和區域、而電動車技術則正沿著新的S曲線急遽上升。未來幾年，電動車相對於ICE的性能和營運成本優勢將不斷擴大；將汽車產業永久性移轉到新的電動車S曲線上。
這也可以解釋，不論傳統車廠或新興車廠，都宣布它們的意圖及計畫，將在接下來的幾十年中，停止內燃機設計並轉型電動車。由於電動車的結構和組織相對簡單，因此出現了許多新公司，尤其是在中國大陸；主要由於受到政府的激勵措施，以及私募股權投資所帶動。就像一百多年前的內燃機公司，已經變成一個擁擠不堪的領域，其中不停的会有新成立、合併或消失的公司。
這種向電動車的轉變，也導致了供應鏈的急遽調整；傳統的內燃機供應鏈正在縮小規模、重新調整，合併或轉變為電池、電機、電控、新興電子產品及軟體的供應商。而具備控制關鍵技術和製造能力的公司，正在成為產業的新寵兒。我們看到包括中國和韓國的重要電池廠商、日本及德國的電機與電控業者、以及台灣晶片和電子廠商。正在兴起。
此外，電動車的發展將創造新的需求與機會、以及在車廠、家庭、以及微型發電廠之間所生產並共享的電能。隨著電動車產業爬上新的S曲線，將會出現一些未知的應用與技術。我們也將看到各種創新型態的電動車、和許多令人興奮的新產品與服務，呈現爆炸性的成長。所以，睜大我們的雙眼、開始探索，這樣你就可以在這個新的供應鏈中，佔得一席位子，得到一些利益与价值。
